Les analystes financiers croient au succès d'Air Canada

Même s'il estime que les actions d'Air Canada constituent toujours un investissement à risque, un analyste financier de la firme Raymond James, M. Ben Cherniavsky, est enthousiaste quand à l'avenir du transporteur, rapporte le Financial Post. M Cherniavski recommande l'action à ses clients. "On en a vu assez," déclare-t-il dans une note de recherche,"c'est un stock à acheter"








"Focus and shrink." That has always the best way for Air Canada to succeed, according to Ben Cherniavsky, an analyst with Raymond James: Focus on markets with high profitability and shrink service to those where profits are squeezed.

And that's exactly what Air Canada is doing, much to the delight of Mr. Cherniavsky. Yesterday, he emerged as one of the most bullish analysts on ACE Aviation Holdings, the holding company for Air Canada, raising his target price by 60% to $40 from $25 and his 2005 earnings per share estimate to $3.75 from $1.50.

"We've seen enough," Mr. Cherniavsky said in a research note. "This stock's a 'buy.'"

The report comes after Air Canada announced another strong month for load factor in November, up year-over-year in all markets it serves. But Mr. Cherniavsky insists other factors led to his new positive view on the company.

He said Air Canada has been aggressively cutting load factor in areas where profits have been hit, particularly in the domestic, Transborder (to the U.S) and Trans-Atlantic markets.

Meanwhile, the airline has increased its focus on the Asian, and Latin and Central American markets by offering greater frequency and direct routes.

Mr. Cherniavsky also noted that although Air Canada's fares remain discounted compared to two years ago, they are moving closer to 2003 levels.

"We believe that Air Canada is (finally) being more disciplined about matching WestJet Airlines Ltd.'s fares rather than aggressively undercutting them."

The airline has also benefited from the rising Canadian loonie and falling U.S. greenback because it has a significant amount of operating expenses, such as interest on aircraft rent, in American funds, he said.

Mr. Cherniavsky isn't alone in the increasingly bullish tone for the stock. For instance, Brian Morrison at TD Newcrest also raised his target price yesterday, increasinging histo $40.50 from $33, based on November's strong traffic numbers and the growing likelihood the airline will monetize Aeroplan, worth about $1.35-billion, in the next 12 months.

But the stock remains a risky investment. Mr. Cherniavsky said much of Air Canada's success depends on whether management remains committed to the "focus and shrink" strategy. Also, the airline still has to overcome service inconsistencies -- something he called "a generally poisoned culture" -- and rebuild bridges it has burnt over the years with customers, employees, media, government and investors.

Other risks include the price of jet fuel, which remains at historically high levels, and an uncertain Canadian economy, he added.

Still, Mr. Cherniavsky is bullish on the airline's earnings potential into 2005, especially after its third-quarter 2004 earnings results, released last month, came in ahead of his expectations.

"Clearly, purchasing Air Canada shares is not for the faint of heart. However, as expressed above, a number of new variables and considerations have tipped us toward the belief that this airline will report a strong year of profits -- its first since 1999 -- in 2005."

ACE Aviation Holdings closed yesterday down 5 cents to $31.96.